Business Outlook

The forecast for the 2022 fiscal year was based on the accounting principles used in the consolidated financial statements. The current forecast does not take account of any larger acquisitions of real estate portfolios.

Our forecast for the 2022 fiscal year is based on determined and updated corporate planning for the Vonovia Group as a whole, and considers current business developments, possible opportunities and risks, the potential impact of the coronavirus pandemic and, to the extent that it can be forecast, potential effects of the war in Ukraine. The forecast also includes the key overall macroeconomic developments and the economic factors that are relevant to the real estate industry and our corporate strategy. Further information is provided in the sections of the 2021 Group management report entitled “Fundamental Information About the Group” and “Development of the Economy and the Industry.”

We expect price increases triggered by the Ukraine crisis, particularly on the energy markets, to have a substantial impact on Vonovia and our customers. While these will have a direct impact on ancillary expenses, they will also have an indirect effect on all areas of the economy due to general price increases. We also expect to see further price increases on the construction materials markets, with a knock-on effect on our construction projects, too. To the extent that the statutory provisions allow, we plan to pass these price increases in the context of our modernization measures on to our tenants as well.

We expect segment revenue to increase further in 2022. We are also currently observing stable demand for rental apartments and a sideways movement in the fair values of our properties.

We also expect to see a considerable increase in Adjusted EBITDA Total and Group FFO, in particular due to the acquisition of Deutsche Wohnen.

In 2022, we expect EPRA NTA per share to be at the previous year’s level, leaving any further market-related changes in value out of the equation.

The current forecast yet again confirms the positive development in the Sustainability Performance Index (SPI). We expect the high level of customer satisfaction to continue. The reduction of carbon emissions is working better than expected.

Rising interest rates and inflation are currently resulting in increased volatility on the equity and debt capital markets, also due to, or exacerbated by, the war in Ukraine. We therefore assess the overall economic situation and developments on an ongoing basis, in particular with regard to the return requirements for investment and divestment decisions. This means that the classification of development projects as “to hold” or “to sell”, decisions on the start of construction, the implementation of portfolio investments and decisions on the sale of property portfolios are currently being reassessed. Consequently, we are anticipating a decline in modernization/portfolio investments and construction/densification in 2023.

The table below, which shows material and selected key indicators, provides a forecast overview for 2022 and an outlook for 2023.

Business Outlook

Actual 2021

Forecast for 2022

Forecast for 2022 in the 2022
H1 Report

Forecast for 2022 in the 2022
Q3 Report

Outlook 2023

Total Segment Revenue

€ 5.2 billion

€ 6.2–6.4 billion

€ 6.2–6.4 billion

€ 6.2–6.4 billion

€ 6.8–7.4 billion

Adjusted EBITDA Total*

€2,254.4 million

€ 2.75–2.85 billion

€ 2.75–2.85 billion

€ 2.75–2.85 billion

€ 2.8–2.9 billion

Group FFO**

€ 1,694.4 million

€ 2.0–2.1 billion

€ 2.0–2.1 billion

€ 2.0–2.1 billion

slightly below previous year

Group FFO per share**

€ 2.18





EPRA NTA per share***

€ 62.63





Sustainability Performance Index (SPI)****






Rental income Rental segment/Deutsche Wohnen

€ 2,568,7 million

€ 3.1–3.2 billion

€ 3.1–3.2 billion

€ 3.1–3.2 billion

€ 3.15–3.25 billion

Organic rent growth (eop)


Increase of ~3.3%

Increase of at least 3.3%


above previous year

portfolio investments*****

€ 758.6 million

€ 1.1–1.3 billion

€ 1.0–1.1 billion

€ 0.8–0.9 billion

~€ 0.5 billion

New construction/space creation*****

€ 639.7 million

€ 1.0–1.2 billion

€ 0.3–0.4 billion

~€ 0.5 billion

~€ 0.35 billion

Number of units sold Recurring Sales/Deutsche Wohnen core






Fair value step-up Recurring Sales/Deutsche Wohnen core






  1. *Figures 2021 adjusted to new adjusted EBITDA definition (excluding results from at-equity investments).
  2. **Based on the new 2022 definition without eliminating IFRS 16 effects, Group FFO per share based on the shares carrying dividend rights on the reporting date.
  3. ***Based on the new 2022 definition, therefore excluding real estate transfer tax, EPRA NTA per share based on the shares carrying dividend rights on the reporting date.2021 adjusted after closing of Deutsche Wohnen PPA.
  4. ****Excl. Deutsche Wohnen.
  5. *****Previously shown as modernization and new construction.

Bochum, November 1, 2022

The Management Board

Tag Manager


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