Business Outlook

Business Outlook for 2025

The forecast was based on the accounting principles used in the consolidated financial statements, with the adjustments described elsewhere in the management report being made. The forecast does not take account of any larger acquisitions of real estate portfolios.

The forecast for the 2025 fiscal year is based on corporate planning determined and updated for the Vonovia Group as a whole, and considers current business developments as well as possible opportunities and risks. It also includes the material macroeconomic developments and the economic factors that are relevant to the real estate industry and Vonovia’s corporate strategy. Further information is provided in the sections of the 2024 Annual Report entitled Development of the Economy and the Industry and Fundamental Information About the Group. Beyond this, the Group’s further development remains exposed to general opportunities and risks (see Opportunities and Risks).

We expect the price increases on the construction and commodity markets, in particular, to continue to have a moderate impact on Vonovia and our customers. While these will have a direct impact on ancillary expenses, they will also have an indirect effect on all areas of the economy due to general price increases. We also expect prices for construction materials to remain high, which will affect our construction projects as well. Unchanged high interest rates and inflation are creating increased volatility on the equity and debt capital markets. We believe that the coalition agreement concluded between the CDU/CSU and SPD political parties will create opportunities regarding tenancy law, energy/modernization and new construction overall; at present, we do not expect to see any negative impact on the business development forecast for the current fiscal year.

We are also keeping an eye on the potential effects of U.S. trade policy and the associated implications of a growing recession on interest rates, construction costs and the availability of skilled workers. We therefore assess the overall economic situation and developments on an ongoing basis, particularly with regard to the return requirements for investment and divestment decisions.

The EBITDA contribution for the Rental core business is expected to be up slightly on the prior-year level. In a year-on-year comparison, organic rent increases and associated higher rental income will have more of an impact than rent losses stemming from sales resulting in a smaller portfolio. As far as the Value-add segment is concerned, we expect the EBITDA contribution in 2025 to be considerably higher than the prior-year level. The expected additional earnings contributions made by increased investment activity in the craftsmen’s organization and rising earnings contributions from the energy business can more than offset the positive one-off effect in the multimedia business resulting from the leasing of coax networks in the previous year. In the sales-related segments, the market is expected to recover, pushing price expectations up. A very strong increase in the EBITDA contribution provided by the Development segment is predicted thanks to the expected increase in demand for new condominiums and the targeted sale of undeveloped land. In the Recurring Sales segment, Vonovia will be making a return to the strategy of profitability before liquidity, with margins expected to increase at the same time, particularly in Germany, fueling a marked increase in Adjusted EBITDA. At Group level, Vonovia expects to see an Adjusted EBITDA Total for 2025 as a whole that is moderately higher than in the previous year.

The rise in interest rates over the last two years is resulting in a moderate increase in borrowing costs and the associated negative adjusted net financial result. With a slight increase in depreciation and amortization due to greater investment in property, plant and equipment (particularly photovoltaic systems), we therefore anticipate that Adjusted EBT will be moderately higher than in the previous year.

We also expect the Operating Free Cash-Flow, before changes in the capital commitment for Development to sell projects, to be slightly below the previous year’s level.

Investment activity is expected to increase in 2025, especially as Vonovia ramps up investments in its portfolio. In addition, the value of the company is expected to increase further and, as a result, EPRA NTA per share is predicted to increase slightly before taking into consideration any further market-related changes in property values.

The values for the individual weighted targets for the 2025 fiscal year produce a forecast of just over 100% for the Sustainability Performance Index.

The table below provides an overview of the development of our forecast performance indicators for 2025 and an initial outlook for expected business development in 2026.

Bochum, October 29, 2025

The Management Board