Business Outlook

2026 Outlook

The forecast was based on the accounting principles used in the consolidated financial statements, with the adjustments described elsewhere in the management report being made. The forecast does not take account of any larger acquisitions of real estate portfolios.

The forecast for the 2026 fiscal year is based on corporate planning determined and updated for the Vonovia Group as a whole, and considers current business developments as well as possible opportunities and risks. It also includes the material macroeconomic developments and the economic factors that are relevant to the real estate industry and Vonovia’s corporate strategy. Further information is provided in the sections of the 2025 Annual Report entitled Development of the Economy and the Industry and Fundamental Information About the Group. Beyond this, the Group’s further development remains exposed to general opportunities and risks (see  Opportunities and Risks).

We expect the price increases on the construction and commodity markets, in particular, to continue to have a moderate impact on Vonovia and our customers. While these will have a direct impact on ancillary expenses, they will also have an indirect effect on all areas of the economy due to general price increases. We also expect prices for construction materials to remain high, which will affect our construction projects as well. Continuously rising interest rates and inflation are creating increased volatility on the equity and debt capital markets. This is accompanied by higher financing costs and, as a result, by continued restricted demand on the transaction market. The evaluation of the regulatory framework regarding tenancy law, energy/modernization and new construction is based on regular monitoring as well as active dialogue with political and societal stakeholders. This also applies to the socio-political debate regarding socialization. At present, we do not expect to see any negative impact on the forecast business development for the current 2026 fiscal year.

We actively monitor the potential effects of U.S. trade policy and the associated implications for inflation, interest rates and construction costs. The current conflict in the Middle East, as well as the generally tense geopolitical situation worldwide, is creating further uncertainty for our customers, as well as on the interest rate and capital markets. Resulting risks, in particular risks arising from energy price-driven inflation and an associated rise in interest rates, as well as other impacts on the capital markets, are actively monitored. We therefore assess the overall economic situation and developments on an ongoing basis, particularly with regard to the return requirements for investment and divestment decisions. The effects of the aforementioned framework conditions on our business performance are reflected accordingly in our forecast.

The EBITDA contribution for our core Rental business is expected to be slightly higher than the previous year’s level. In a year-on-year comparison, organic rent increases and associated higher rental income will have more of an impact than rent losses stemming from sales resulting in a smaller portfolio. As far as the Value-add segment is concerned, we expect the EBITDA contribution in 2026 to be considerably higher than the prior-year level. The expected additional earnings contributions made by increased investment activity in our craftsmen’s organization, as well as rising earnings contributions from the energy business, are the key drivers here. As a result of the developments and effects on the transaction market described above, our sales-related segments are performing weaker than originally expected. In the Recurring Sales segment, we anticipate higher margins which, despite lower sales volumes, will result in a slight increase in Adjusted EBITDA compared with the previous year. The EBITDA contribution for the Development segment is expected to be considerably below the previous year’s level. At Group level, for 2026 we therefore expect to see an Adjusted EBITDA Total that is moderately higher than in the previous year.

The rise in interest rates since 2022 is resulting in a marked increase in borrowing costs and the associated negative adjusted net financial result. With a moderate increase in depreciation and amortization due to greater investment in property, plant and equipment (particularly photovoltaic systems) we anticipate that Adjusted EBT will be on par with the previous year’s level overall.

We also expect the operating free cash flow before changes in net working capital to be moderately below the previous year’s level.

Due in particular to heavier investment in our existing portfolio, we expect our investment activity to increase in 2026. In addition, we expect the value of our company to increase further in a year-on-year comparison in 2026 and, as a result, predict a slight increase in EPRA NTA per share, before taking into consideration any further market-related changes in property values. EPRA NTA per share stood at € 46.31 as of September 30, 2026, as against € 46.28 as of December 31, 2025.

The values for the individual weighted targets for the 2026 fiscal year produce a forecast of just over 100% for the Sustainability Performance Index.

The table below provides an overview of the development of our forecast performance indicators for 2026 and an initial outlook for expected business development in 2027. In light of the uncertainties described above, parts of the outlook for 2027 are presented not in the form of interval forecasts, but as qualified comparative forecasts.

Bochum, November 2, 2026

The Management Board