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Forecast Report

Business Outlook 2023

The forecast was based on the accounting principles used in the consolidated financial statements, with the adjustments described elsewhere in the management report being made. The forecast does not take account of any larger acquisitions of real estate portfolios.

Our forecast for the 2023 fiscal year is based on determined and updated corporate planning for the Vonovia Group as a whole and considers current business developments, the completed integration of Deutsche Wohnen, possible opportunities and risks, potential after-effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the effects of the war in Ukraine. It also includes the key overall macroeconomic developments and the economic factors that are relevant to the real estate industry and our corporate strategy. Further information is provided in the sections entitled Development of the Economy and the Industry and Fundamental Information About the Group. Beyond this, the Group’s further development remains exposed to general opportunities and risks (see Opportunities and Risks).

We expect price increases triggered by the Ukraine crisis, particularly on the energy markets, to have a substantial impact on Vonovia and our customers. While these will have a direct impact on ancillary expenses, they will also have an indirect effect on all areas of the economy due to general price increases. We also expect prices for construction materials to remain high, with a knock-on effect on our construction projects, too.

Rising interest rates and inflation continue to create increased volatility on the equity and debt capital markets, also due to, or exacerbated by, the war in Ukraine. We therefore assess the overall economic situation and developments on an ongoing basis, particularly with regard to the return requirements for investment and divestment decisions.

We expect total segment revenue to increase further in 2023. We also expect Adjusted EBITDA Total to be on a par with, or slightly below, the prior-year level. Both key figures are currently being influenced to a considerable degree by the sales risks on the transaction market.

We expect the EBITDA contribution for the Rental segment to increase slightly with stable/rising demand for rental apartments. We predict a result that is roughly on a par with the previous year for Value-add and Recurring Sales. Due to the strong result in the 2022 fiscal year and the updated project valuations in the annual financial statements, we expect to see a marked drop in EBITDA in the Development segment. As far as the Care segment is concerned, we predict a slight drop in EBITDA in 2023 due to positive one-off effects in 2022.

We also expect borrowing costs to increase further, and current income taxes to increase due to the higher transaction volume. As a result, we expect Group FFO to decline slightly.

In addition, we expect the value of our company to increase further in 2023 and predict a slight increase in EPRA NTA per share, leaving any further market-related changes in value out of the equation.

Due to the increased cost of capital as described above, we anticipate a decline in modernization/portfolio investments and new construction/densification in 2023.

Based on the individual weighted targets and the values planned for the 2023 fiscal year in each case, we predict a total value of around 100% for the Sustainability Performance Index.

The table below provides an overview of the development of the performance indicators forecast, their target achievement level in the 2022 fiscal year as well as a forecast for the 2023 fiscal year.

Development of forecast performance indicators incl. target achievement level

Actual 2021

Forecast for 2022

Forecast for 2022 in the 2022 Q3 Report

Actual 2022

Forecast for 2023

Total Segment Revenue

€ 5.2 billion

€ 6.2–6.4 billion

€ 6.2–6.4 billion

€ 6.3 billion

€ 6.4–7.2 billion

Adjusted EBITDA Total*

€ 2,254.4 million

€ 2.75–2.85 billion

€ 2.75–2.85 billion

€2,763.1 million

€ 2.6–2.85 billion

Group FFO**

€ 1,694.4 million

€ 2.0–2.1 billion

€ 2.0–2.1 billion

€ 2,035.6 million

€ 1.75–1.95 billion

Group FFO per share**

€ 2.18



€ 2.56


EPRA NTA per share***

€ 62.63



€ 57.48


Sustainability Performance Index (SPI)****






Rental income

€ 2,568,7 million

€ 3.1–3.2 billion

€ 3.1–3.2 billion

€ 3,168.1 million

€ 3.15–3.25 billion

Organic rent growth (eop)


Increase of ~3.3%



above previous year

Modernization/portfolio investments*****

€ 792.4 million

€ 1.1–1.3 billion

€ 0.8–0.9 billion

€ 837.4 million

~€ 0.5 billion

New construction/space creation*****

€ 639.9 million

€ 1.0–1.2 billion

~€ 0.5 billion

€ 607.1 million

~€ 0.35 billion

Number of units sold Recurring Sales






Fair value step-up Recurring Sales






  1. *Figures 2021 adjusted to new adjusted EBITDA definition (excluding results from at-equity investments).
  2. **Based on the new 2022 definition without eliminating IFRS 16 effects, Group FFO per share based on the shares carrying dividend rights on the reporting date.
  3. ***Based on the new 2022 definition, therefore excluding real estate transfer tax, EPRA NTA per share based on the shares carrying dividend rights on the reporting date. 2021 figures adjusted after closing of Deutsche Wohnen PPA.
  4. ****Up to and including 2022 exclusive Deutsche Wohnen. From forecast 2023 including Deutsche Wohnen (excluding segment care and SYNVIA).
  5. *****Previously shown as modernization and new construction.

Bochum, March 14, 2023

The Management Board

Rolf Buch

Daniel Riedl

Arnd Fittkau

Helene von Roeder

Philip Grosse