Forecast Report

2026 Outlook

The forecast was based on the accounting principles used in the consolidated financial statements, with the adjustments described elsewhere in the management report being made. The forecast does not take account of any larger acquisitions of real estate portfolios.

The forecast for the 2026 fiscal year is based on corporate planning determined and updated for the Vonovia Group as a whole, and considers current business developments as well as possible opportunities and risks. It also includes the material macroeconomic developments and the economic factors that are relevant to the real estate industry and Vonovia’s corporate strategy. Further information is provided in the sections entitled Development of the Economy and the Industry and Fundamental Information About the Group. Beyond this, the Group’s further development remains exposed to general opportunities and risks (see Opportunities and Risks).

We expect the price increases on the construction and commodity markets, in particular, to continue to have a moderate impact on Vonovia and our customers. While these will have a direct impact on ancillary expenses, they will also have an indirect effect on all areas of the economy due to general price increases. We also expect prices for construction materials to remain high, which will affect our construction projects as well. Unchanged high interest rates and inflation are creating increased volatility on the equity and debt capital markets. The evaluation of the regulatory framework regarding tenancy law, energy/modernization and new construction is based on regular monitoring as well as active dialogue with stakeholders from politics and business; at present, we do not expect to see any negative impact on the business development forecast for the 2026 fiscal year.

We are also keeping an eye on the potential effects of U.S. trade policy and the associated implications of a growing recession on interest rates, construction costs and the availability of skilled workers. The Iran conflict is leading to additional uncertainties for our customers, investors, and other capital providers. However, we currently see no direct impact of the Iran conflict on Vonovia’s expected business development. Indirect effects, such as increasing energy prices, inflation, interest rate developments, as well as other impacts on the capital markets, are currently not assessable but are being actively observed. We therefore assess the overall economic situation and developments on an ongoing basis, particularly with regard to the return requirements for investment and divestment decisions.

The EBITDA contribution for our core Rental business is expected to be slightly higher than the previous year’s level. In a year-on-year comparison, organic rent increases and associated higher rental income will have more of an impact than rent losses stemming from sales resulting in a smaller portfolio. For the Value-add segment, we expect the EBITDA contribution for 2026 to be significantly above the previous year’s level. The expected additional earnings contributions from increased investment activity in our craftsmen’s organisation and rising earnings contributions from the energy business are decisive here. In the sales-related segments, we anticipate a market recovery and associated rising price expectations. For the Recurring Sales segment in Germany, we are expecting higher demand on the transaction market resulting in higher margins and sales volume and thus in a very strong increase in Adjusted EBITDA. For the Development segment, we forecast an EBITDA contribution significantly above the previous year’s level, with the expected increase in demand for newly built condominiums more than offsetting the very positive result from the sale of undeveloped land in the previous year. At Group level, for 2026 we therefore expect to see an Adjusted EBITDA Total that is moderately higher than in the previous year.

The rise in interest rates since 2022 is resulting in a marked increase in borrowing costs and the associated negative adjusted net financial result. With a moderate increase in depreciation and amortization due to greater investment in property, plant and equipment (particularly photovoltaic systems) we therefore anticipate that Adjusted EBT will be slightly higher than the previous year’s level.

We also expect operating free cash flow before changes in net working capital to remain at the previous year’s level.

Due in particular to heavier investment in our existing portfolio, we expect our investment activity to increase in 2026. In addition, we expect the value of our company to increase further and, as a result, predict a slight increase in EPRA NTA per share, before taking into consideration any further market-related changes in property values, which also corresponds to our expectation for the 2025 financial year compared to the 2024 financial year. The EPRA NTA per share as of 31 December 2025 is €46.28, compared to €45.23 as of 31 December 2024.

The values for the individual weighted targets for the 2026 fiscal year produce a standardized forecast of 100% for the Sustainability Performance Index.

The table below provides an overview of the development of the performance indicators forecast for 2025, their target achievement level in the 2025 fiscal year as well as a forecast for the 2026 fiscal year.