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Forecast Report

Business Outlook for 2024

The forecast was based on the accounting principles used in the consolidated financial statements, with the adjustments described elsewhere in the management report being made. The forecast does not take account of any larger acquisitions of real estate portfolios.

Our forecast for the 2024 fiscal year is based on determined and updated corporate planning for the Vonovia Group as a whole and considers current business developments as well as possible opportunities and risks. It also includes the key overall macroeconomic developments and the economic factors that are relevant to the real estate industry and our corporate strategy. Further information is provided in the sections entitled Development of the Economy and the Industry and Fundamental Information About the Group. Beyond this, the Group’s further development remains exposed to general opportunities and risks (see Opportunities and Risks).

We expect the price increases on the construction and commodity markets, in particular, continue to have a moderate impact on Vonovia and our customers. While these will have a direct impact on ancillary expenses, they will also have an indirect effect on all areas of the economy due to general price increases. We also expect prices for construction materials to remain high, which will affect our construction projects as well. Unchanged high interest rates and inflation continue to create increased volatility on the equity and debt capital markets. We therefore assess the overall economic situation and developments on an ongoing basis, particularly with regard to the return requirements for investment and divestment decisions.

The EBITDA contribution for our core Rental business is expected to more or less match the previous year’s level. In a year-on-year comparison, organic rent increases and associated higher rental income will be offset by higher rent losses stemming from sales resulting in a smaller portfolio. As far as the Value-add segment is concerned, we expect to see a pronounced increase in Adjusted EBITDA in 2024, mainly as a result of us ramping our investment activity back up. We also predict a marked increase in the EBITDA contribution for our Development segment thanks to higher demand for new condominiums. Depending on how the demand for existing apartments develops going forward, we expect Adjusted EBITDA in the Recurring Sales segment to be up slightly year-on-year. The Care segment was reported as a discontinued operation at the end of the 2023 fiscal year and is therefore no longer included in the 2024 forecast. At Group level, we therefore expect to see an Adjusted EBITDA Total that is roughly on a par with the previous year overall.

The rise in interest rates over the last two years is resulting in a marked increase in borrowing costs and the associated adjusted net financial result. Based on stable depreciation and amortization, we therefore expect Adjusted EBT to be slightly below the previous year’s level.

Due in particular to heavier investment in our existing portfolio, we expect our investment activity to increase in 2024. In addition, we expect the value of our company to increase further and, as a result, predict a slight increase in EPRA NTA per share, leaving any further market-related changes in property value out of the equation.

The values for the individual weighted targets for the 2024 fiscal year produce a standardized forecast of 100% for the Sustainability Performance Index.

The table below provides an overview of the development of our forecast performance indicators and the target achievement level for these indicators in the 2023 fiscal year.

Development of forecast performance indicators

Actual 2022

Forecast for 2023

Forecast for 2023
in the 2023 Q3 Report***

Actual 2023

Total segment revenue
(incl. discontinued operations)

€ 6.3 billion

€ 6.4–7.2 billion

moderately below previous year

€5,638.1 million

Adjusted EBITDA total
(incl. discontinued operations)

€2,763.1 million

€ 2.6–2.85 billion

lower end of
€ 2.6–2.85 billion

€2,652.4 million

Group FFO
(incl. discontinued operations)

€ 2,035.6 million

€ 1.75–1.95 billion

mid-point of
€ 1.75–1.95 billion

€ 1,847.1 million

Group FFO per share
(incl. discontinued operations)*

€ 2.58


mid-point of
€ 2.15–2.39

€ 2.29

EPRA NTA per share**

€ 57.48



€ 46.82

Sustainability Performance Index (SPI)****





Rental income

€ 3,168.1 million

€ 3.15–3.25 billion

upper end of
€ 3.15–3.25 billion

€ 3,253.4 million

Organic rent growth (eop)


above previous year

3.7–3.8 %



€ 837.4 million

~€ 0.5 billion

~€ 0.5 billion

€ 470.8 million

New construction/space

€ 607.1 million

~€ 0.35 billion

~€ 0.35 billion

€ 291.2 million

Number of units sold Recurring Sales





Fair value step-up Recurring Sales





  1. * Based on the weighted average number of shares carrying dividend rights.
  2. ** Based on the shares carrying dividend rights on the reporting date.
  3. *** As reported incl. Care segment and gross profit Development to hold.
  4. **** Up to and incl. 2022, excl. Deutsche Wohnen. 2023 forecast, incl. Deutsche Wohnen (excl. Care segment and SYNVIA).

The 2024 fiscal year forecast is based on the adjusted management system and does not take discontinued operations into account.

Forecast (continuing operations)

Actual 2023

Forecast for 2024

Adjusted EBT

€ 1,866.2 million

€ 1.70–1.80 billion

Adjusted EBITDA total

€2,538.8 million

€ 2.55–2.65 billion

EPRA NTA per share*

€ 46.82


Sustainability Performance Index (SPI)



Rental income

€ 3,253.4 million

~€ 3.3 billion

Organic rent growth



Additional rent increase claim**



  1. *Based on the shares carrying dividend rights on the reporting date.
  2. **For Germany: additional rent increase claim regarding the apartment in relation to the local comparable rent (OVM) that is guaranteed by law but can only be implemented once the three-year period for maximum rent growth (“Kappungsgrenze”) has lapsed. The percentage value refers to the cumulative rent increase claim at the respective point in time and -for that period- cannot be added to the organic rent growth as the implementation occurs in subsequent years.

Bochum, February 28, 2024

The Management Board

Rolf Buch

Arnd Fittkau

Philip Grosse

Daniel Riedl

Ruth Werhahn